US Inflation May 2026: What the CPI and PPI Reports Mean Before Warsh’s First FOMC
US inflation in May 2026 hit a 4.2 percent CPI headline and a 6.5 percent PPI, an energy-driven shock with...
Federal Reserve
US GDP Q1 2026: Growth Masks Stagflationary Quarter
US GDP Q1 2026 was revised down to 1.6 percent as the income side, profits, and consumer spending all weakened,...
US PCE Inflation April 2026: The Fed’s Favorite Gauge Hits a Three-Year High
US PCE inflation April 2026 hit 3.8 percent, a three-year high, as energy costs surged and growth slowed, leaving the...
Central Bank Swap Lines: Global Dollar Backstop
Central bank swap lines are the Federal Reserve's primary crisis backstop for the offshore dollar system, used at scale in...
Ample Reserves vs Scarce Reserves: Reserve Regimes Compared
The choice between ample reserves vs scarce reserves shapes how the Fed sets the policy rate, runs its balance sheet,...
Repo Market Standing Repo Facility: September 2019 Spike
The September 2019 SOFR spike revealed how brittle US money market plumbing had become. The Standing Repo Facility, launched in...
Dot Plot FOMC: Decoding the Summary of Economic Projections
The FOMC dot plot is the most-cited chart in monetary policy. Reading it well requires looking past the median to...
Forward Guidance Frameworks: From Open-Mouth Operations to Date-Based Pledges
Forward guidance is how central banks move long-term interest rates by managing expectations. From qualitative language to date-based pledges, the...
Average Inflation Targeting: How the Fed Replaced Strict 2 Percent in 2020
Average inflation targeting is the framework the Fed adopted in 2020 to address persistent inflation undershoots and the lower-bound constraint....
Neutral Rate of Interest: r-star and What It Means for Policy
The neutral rate of interest r-star is the unobservable benchmark that defines monetary policy stance. Estimates span 170 basis points,...