US GDP Q1 2026: Growth Masks Stagflationary Quarter
US GDP Q1 2026 was revised down to 1.6 percent as the income side, profits, and consumer spending all weakened,...
Author: Majid Ali Sanghro
US PCE Inflation April 2026: The Fed’s Favorite Gauge Hits a Three-Year High
US PCE inflation April 2026 hit 3.8 percent, a three-year high, as energy costs surged and growth slowed, leaving the...
Propensity Score Matching: Building Comparable Groups in Observational Studies
Propensity score matching builds comparable treatment and control groups in observational studies by matching units with similar treatment probabilities.
Regression Discontinuity Design: Estimating Causal Effects at a Cutoff
Regression discontinuity design estimates causal effects at a cutoff by comparing units just below and above a policy threshold.
P-Hacking: How Hidden Choices Create False Positives
P-hacking makes fragile findings look significant by hiding specification search. Learn how the garden of forking paths affects economic research...
Non-Tariff Barriers: How Trade Is Restricted Without Tariffs
Non-tariff barriers restrict trade through quotas, licensing, standards, and procurement rules rather than tariffs, making protection harder to see, measure,...
Lerner Symmetry Theorem: Import Tariffs Tax Exports
The Lerner symmetry theorem shows an import tariff and an export tax of equal rate have identical real effects, so...
Trade and Wages for Skilled and Unskilled: Textbook Defied
How trade and wages for skilled and unskilled workers diverged from textbook predictions, why the skill premium rose, and what...
Effective Rate of Protection: Why Low Tariffs Shelter More
The effective rate of protection measures how much a tariff structure shelters an industry's value added, explaining why a low...
The Lucas Critique Applied to Inflation Models
The Lucas critique explains why every major Phillips Curve breakdown since 1970 was predictable. Reduced-form inflation models inherit the policy...